Head of the Framing Futures team, and Principal Ecologist

Office:
Thetford
Team(s):
Dispersed Threats Team
Phil is responsible for the portfolio of work in the Framing Futures team.
The focus of the team’s work is to use BTO’s science to track the impacts of, and inform responses to, future climate change, wildlife disease and other new environmental threats to the UK’s wild bird populations.
Most recently, Phil’s research has focused on using existing and new datasets to assess the impact of the outbreak of high pathogenicity avian influenza on the UK’s wild bird populations.
His other recent research has focused on:
- African-Eurasian migrant birds, such as Cuckoos;
- the restoration of wetland habitats in Belarus and Ukraine;
- the application of citizen science to a bat monitoring project in the Bailiwick of Guernsey;
- the cumulative impacts of offshore wind installations on seabirds.
Previous work has included:
- developing new methods of modelling migration routes of waterbirds and the associated risk of avian influenza incursion into the UK;
- responding to climate change in the coastal zone by understanding the issues concerning the creation and restoration of coastal wetland habitats (managed realignment);
- understanding the demographic implications of environmental change on bird populations (in particular the harvesting of shellfish);
- the extension of demographic models to estimate the total numbers of migrant birds passing through a site (turnover);
- using stable isotopes to study shorebird migration systems and the application of process-based (i.e. individuals-based) models to conservation issues.
Other Information
- Honorary Professor, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
- Editor-in-Chief, Bird Conservation International
- BSc (Hons) Ecology, University of East Anglia. 1991
- PhD The wintering ecology of Twite Carduelis flavirostris and the consequences of sea level rise, University of East Anglia. 1996
- Honorary Professor, School of Biological Sciences, University of East Anglia.
Recent BTO Publications
- Kirkland, M., Annorbah, N.N.D., Barber, L., Black, J., Blackburn, J., Colley, M., Clewley, G., Cross, C., Drew, M., Fox, O.J.L., Gilson, V., Hahn, S., Holt, C., Hulme, M.F., Jarjou, J., Jatta, D., Jatta, E., Mensah-Pebi, E., Orsman, C., Sarr, N., Walsh, R., Zwartz, L., Fuller, R.J., Atkinson, P.W. & Hewson, C.M. 2025. Extreme migratory connectivity and mirroring of non-breeding grounds conditions in a severely declining breeding population of an Afro-Palearctic migratory bird. Scientific Reports 14: doi:10.1038/s41598-025-86484-z
- Atkinson, P.A., Balmer, D.E., Banyard, A.C., Duggan, J., Falchieri, M., Frost, T.M., Humphreys, E.M., Jones, R., Langlois Lopez, S., Miles, W.T.S., Murphy, M., Owens, R., Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Reid, S.M., Smith C. & Tremlett, C.J. 2025. Evaluating the use of carcass and testing data to assess the high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) related mortality in wild birds in the United Kingdom and Crown Dependencies between 2021–2023. Bird Study 72: 20-38 doi:10.1080/00063657.2025.2492902
- Johnston, D.T., Atkinson, P.W., Leech, E.I., Burton, N.H.K., Humphreys, E.M., Robinson, R.A., Blackburn, J.R., Blackburn, A.C., Brides, K., Boland, H., Burke, B., Daunt, F., Davies, J.C., Edwards, P.J., Furness, R.W., Holman, D., Redfern, C.P.F., Swann, R.L., Roper, P., Stansfield, S.D., Walsh, A.J. & Pearce-Higgins, J.W 2025. Using ring (band) recovery data to examine the impact of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) on wild bird populations. Bird Study 72: 39-50 doi:10.1080/00063657.2025.2491797
- Zalewska, K. Gilroy, J.J., Catry, I., Atkinson, P.W., Klvaňová, A. & Franco, A.M.A. 2025. European breeding bird declines associated with narrower climatic niches. Journal of Biogeography 52: doi:10.1111/jbi.15127
- Atkinson, P.W. & Baillie, S.R. 2025. Jumping species and seasons – the spread and impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza on seabirds and waterbirds. Bird Study 71: 289-292 doi:10.1080/00063657.2025.2471626
- Atkinson, P.W. & Baillie, S.R. 2025. Responding to high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) and the conservation crisis in wild birds – where next?. Bird Study 72: 1-4 doi:10.1080/00063657.2025.2509991
- Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Clewley, G., Bolton, M., Banyard, A.C., Marco Falchierie, M., Lindley, P. & Atkinson, P.W. 2025. Assessing the vulnerability of wild bird populations to high pathogenicity avian influenza. Bird Study 72: 5-19 doi:10.1080/00063657.2025.2494164
- Newson, S.E., Allez, S.L., Coule, E.K., Guille, A.W., Henney, J.M., Higgins, L., Mclellan, G.D., Lewis, M., Simmons, M.C. & Atkinson, P.W. 2024. Bailiwick Bat Survey: 2023 season report. BTO Research Report 764:
- Bonaldi, C., Vardanis, Y., Willemoes, M., Hewson, C.M., Atkinson, P.W., Nilsson, J-Å., Klaassen, R.H.G., Strandberg, R., Tøttrup, A.P., Howey, P.W., Alerstam, T. & Thorup, K. 2024. Recurrence, fidelity and proximity to previously visited sites throughout the annual cycle in a trans-Saharan migrant, the Common Cuckoo. Journal of Avian Biology doi:10.1111/jav.03183
- Russell, C., Franco, A., Atkinson, P., Väli, Ü. & Ashton-Butt, A. 2024. Active European warzone impacts raptor migration. Current Biology 35: 2272-2277 doi:10.1016/j.cub.2024.04.047