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Papers

BTO publishes peer-reviewed papers in a wide range of scientific journals, both independently and with our partners. If you are unable to access a scientific paper by a BTO author, please contact us.

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Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas

Author: Johnston, A., Ausden, M., Dodd, A.M., Bradbury, R.B., Chamberlain, D.E., Jiguet, F., Thomas, C.D., Cook, A.S.C.P., Newson, S.E., Ockendon, N., Rehfisch, M.M., Roos, S., Thaxter, C.B., Brown, A., Crick, H.Q.P., Douse, A., McCall, R.A., Pontier, H., Stroud, D.A., Cadiou, B., Crowe, O., Deceuninck, B., Hornman, M. & Pearce-Higgins, J.W.

Published: 2013

Protected area networks, where several sites are legally protected because of their importance for particular species or habitats, are one of the main conservation tools for reducing biodiversity loss. However, it is unclear how effective these networks might be as the species and habitats for which they are designated respond to climate change. New research led by the BTO and published in the prestigious journal Nature Climate Change, provides the most compelling evidence yet that while British bird populations are being affected by climate change, and will continue to be, the network of sites established to protect them under European law is resilient to these changes and will remain so. The UK is home to internationally important populations of breeding seabirds and wintering waterbirds. Sites holding particular numbers of these species are designated as Special Protection Areas (SPAs) under the EU Birds Directive. Scientists used high quality data on the abundance of 62 seabirds and waterbirds collected over 30 years to show that more than half the population trends during this time can be explained by climate change. They then used this information to predict trends until 2080 assuming 4?C global warming. This scenario produced population declines of at least 25% of more than half of species considered, and in some cases falls of more than 50%. Species such as the Arctic Tern, Guillemot, Eider and Bar-tailed Godwit were particularly badly affected. However, other species, like Avocet, Snipe and Common Tern, were projected to increase in numbers. These gains and losses have implications for the designation of SPAs. However, although many sites were projected to lose qualifying species as numbers dropped below the necessary threshold, they were also expected to gain other species, resulting in an overall change in the composition of species protected by a particular area. Such alterations highlight the need for efficient administration and regular assessment of the SPA network, so that it keeps pace with bird population trends.

01.01.13

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Setting the scene

Author: Balmer, D.E., Gillings, S., Caffrey, B.J., Swann, R.L. & Fuller, R.J.

Published: 2013

01.01.13

Papers