Newly published research led by the BTO shows a consistent impact of climate change on biodiversity around the world. A new analysis of the results from over 130 previously published studies of wild species, ranging from alder trees to zebras, has found a consistent impact of climate change on global biodiversity. The research, led by BTO scientists working in collaboration with organisations from the Cambridge Conservation Initiative, showed that populations of many species actually respond positively to warmer temperatures, with cold weather associated with population declines, particularly in temperate countries like the UK. However, this positive effect of temperature was largely negated where there was a significant long-term warming trend, demonstrating that climate change is already affecting species' populations. Rainfall was the most important factor influencing species’ populations in tropical and sub-tropical regions, where wetter weather generally has a positive effect. Here again there was evidence that climate change may be negatively affecting species through the detrimental impacts of drought. This study not only indicates that climate change is affecting many species around the world now, but importantly shows that the ways in which climate change affects species varies with location. In the tropics, changes in rainfall and therefore drought conditions will probably have the greatest impact on species’ populations, communities and ecosystems. This means that conservation management to help species cope with climate change in these areas should focus on managing water levels. However, the processes will be different at higher latitudes, where the impact of warming is likely to be more important. The effect of warming in temperate latitudes helps explain why many bird populations in the UK have increased as temperatures have risen, leading to polewards shifts in the distribution of those species. However, in the tropics, we would expect species’ range shifts to be driven as much by changing rainfall patterns as by temperature, and therefore species’ may not simply shift polewards away from the equator. Given that the impacts of climate change upon biodiversity in the tropics are likely to involve different ecological mechanisms from those impacts at higher latitudes, there is an urgent need to establish robust monitoring and long-term biodiversity studies across tropical regions to track the changes that occur. This research underlines the widespread and complex implications of climate change across the natural world, and identifies areas in which further research and monitoring is needed to address and reverse the negative impacts on biodiversity.

BTO research has used data from the Breeding Bird Survey to show that many of our birds have expanded their geographic range as a short-term response to climate change. BTO research, led by Dario Massimino of the Population Ecology and Modelling Team, has used data from the Breeding Bird Survey to investigate the short-term response of breeding birds in Britain to recent temperature changes. Many models of climate change predict contractions in species range and increased extinction risk. This study looked at the period between 1994 and 2009, during which Britain experienced an average temperature increase of 0.59°C. The analysis of the population density of 80 bird species during these years showed an expansion in the majority of these species’ ranges. The paper’s authors examined the northern and southernmost extent of where these species occur in the UK (the range margins), and found that the northern margin had shifted north by approximately 45 km on average. Over the same period, the southern margin had remained largely static, amounting to a northwards range expansion for the species concerned. This research also explored whether species had shifted to higher altitudes as British temperature rose, but found no consistent response. The results of the study show that bird movements are not keeping pace with temperature changes. With the change in temperature recorded, birds were expected to shift northwards by 108 km or upwards by 63 m. Climate change impacts on biodiversity are largely of concern due to the magnitude of future projected impacts, so the absence of short-term adverse effects found in this study should not be taken to mean that climate change will not cause range contraction in many species. Instead, the study underlines the importance of long-term monitoring to detect, document and properly describe the impact of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystems, so that conservation action can be optimally targeted.

Results from the 2013 Woodcock Survey show that breeding numbers and breeding range have both declined considerably since the previous survey in 2003. The rate of decline varied regionally but was least pronounced in areas that contained large tracts of continuous woodland. The latest Woodcock Survey, undertaken in 2013 by BTO and GWCT, has provided an updated breeding population estimate and an assessment of breeding range change, since the first survey in 2003. In addition, recent trends in breeding numbers were measured using annual counts data since 2003. The Woodcock is currently ‘amber-listed’ as a species of conservation concern, resulting from recent moderate declines within Europe and Russia. However, the actual scale of these changes is uncertain owing to a lack of accurate data due to the nocturnal habits and cryptic behaviour of the bird. A bespoke survey methodology is required to assess numbers accurately, using the number of ‘roding’ flight passes to estimate the number of individuals. Roding happens at dawn and dusk, when male Woodcock fly large circuits and call to advertise their presence to receptive females. . In 2013 counts were undertaken during May–June at 834 randomly selected British sites. The breeding population was estimated at 55,241 males (95% CL: 41,806–69,004), representing a 29% decline since 2003. The percentage of wooded survey squares occupied by Woodcock decreased from 47% in 2003 to 37% in 2013. Annual counts from occupied sites monitored between 2003 and 2013 also indicate a decrease in abundance of 40% during the 10 year period. Breeding distribution data from BirdAtlas 2007–11 indicates that range extent in Britain contracted by 31% since 1988–91 and 56% since 1968–72. The decline in range and breeding numbers is considerable and most severe in the south and west of Britain. The greatest decreases have occurred in locations containing small tracts of fragmented woodland, while regions with large areas of continuous woodland have experienced the least change. Further research is required to fully understand the reasons for the Woodcock decline, which may be associated with changes in woodland structure, perhaps though management practices or rising deer numbers. Little is currently known about breeding productivity, over-winter survival and the potential impact of hunting. Please consider surveying a local site and contribute to the annual survey, which is essential for monitoring further changes to this charismatic and declining species.