Papers

Papers

BTO publishes peer-reviewed papers in a wide range of scientific journals, both independently and with our partners. If you are unable to access a scientific paper by a BTO author, please contact us.

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Spatially targeted nature-based solutions can mitigate climate change and nature loss but require a systems approach

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Published: 2023

Models of future land-use scenarios show that it is possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the land sector to zero, and increase habitat availability for most birds, including many species of conservation concern. However, some farmland-associated species may lose habitat, and the resulting decrease in food production will require reforms of the food system. Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is one of the greatest challenges humankind is currently facing. A growing coalition of countries are now pledging to achieve net zero emissions, which means that any emissions of GHG will need to be balanced by carbon removal in the same year. The United Kingdom has committed to reach net zero by 2050.The land use and food production systems have a key role in addressing this challenge and are the only sector realistically capable of offering a net sink in terms of carbon sequestration at a significant scale. Fortunately, some land-based actions can produce multiple positive outcomes at the same time: for example, protecting and restoring natural ecosystems can support both biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration. However, some trade-offs are unavoidable: for example, if farmed land is reduced, the remaining land will either deliver less food, or will need to deliver higher yields. However, the latter is usually associated with more intensive farming, and ensuing wildlife declines. This collaborative study led by the RSPB has developed mathematical models to explore nine different scenarios of future land use for the whole of the UK. These scenarios apply different levels of several climate change mitigation measures, such as, for example, creation of intertidal habitats, creation of hedges, or organic farming. All scenarios except one (the baseline scenario) are aimed at reducing, and possibly eliminating, net GHG emissions by 2050. Results show that the four best-performing scenarios in terms of brining down net GHG emissions are the nature-based ones, which are particularly focused on creating habitats such as intertidal areas, woodland, and hedges, but also favouring low-carbon farming measures. The nature-based scenarios also perform well in terms of providing habitats for birds and are associated with projected increases in the abundance of Red- and Amber-listed species between 16% and 19% by 2050. However, farmland species are projected to decline between 17% and 21% over this period, so conservation interventions will be needed to prevent this loss without affecting yield at the same time. Food production will be the big challenge, with a predicted decline under the nature-based scenarios between 26% and 29%. This reduction will require intervention on the demand side, particularly in terms of large-scale dietary changes and waste reduction. The study shows the potential of nature-based scenarios to deliver both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation in the UK, but interventions will also be needed both on the food system, to compensate for diminished food production, and the management of remaining farmland, to make sure that we don’t lose farmland birds.

20.10.23

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Avoidance of offshore wind farms by Sandwich Terns in the North Sea increases with turbine density

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Published: 2023

Offshore wind energy is considered an essential part of humanity’s transition away from fossil fuels, but it is important to understand the consequences that wind farms can have for wildlife. In this study, GPS data revealed how breeding Sandwich Terns avoid offshore wind farms in the North Sea. The study, led by Waardenburg Ecology in the Netherlands, used data from GPS tracking of breeding Sandwich Terns carried out at Scolt Head, Norfolk, and De Putten in the Netherlands between 2016 and 2021. Scolt Head had four operational offshore wind farms nearby (within the distance that Sandwich Terns are known to fly when searching for food), and De Putten had three. The authors examined the terns’ so-called ‘macro-avoidance rate’, which is the rate at which birds avoid entering an offshore wind farm altogether. This avoidance amounts to habitat loss, since the birds will no longer use this area of the sea, and perhaps incur additional energetic costs by flying around wind farms or having to forage in less optimal alternative areas. The results showed that Sandwich Terns reduced their use of the Dutch offshore wind farms areas by 41%, and British offshore wind farms by 54%. Birds were more likely to avoid wind farms the closer together the turbines were. This study’s findings could inform not only the positioning of future offshore wind farm developments, but also their design, as taller, more widely spaced turbines could be preferable to shorter, most densely packed ones in terms of minimising any detrimental effects on Sandwich Terns and related species.

18.10.23

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Multi-scale habitat selection throughout the annual cycle of a long-distance avian migrant

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Published: 2023

Long distance migrants, such as those breeding in western Europe and wintering south of the Sahara in Africa, face perilous journeys during autumn and spring. During the annual cycle, the habitats they use vary considerably between breeding and wintering sites, as well as on essential migration stopovers in very different landscapes on different continents. There are several geographical barriers to negotiate and large expanses of inhospitable habitat, such as sea and desert, to cross. In this collaborative study, high resolution GPS tracking data were used to investigate how the Nightjar achieves this journey, and the strategy the birds use to locate essential foraging habitat along the way. Small to medium sized migratory birds cannot store enough fat reserves to complete the journey in a single movement. Instead, they must stop to refuel at various stages to successfully complete each subsequent leg of the journey using a series of intermediate locations as ‘stepping stones’. This can be problematic for these migrants, as they first need to find suitable foraging habitat and feed sufficiently to get over the next barrier. Aerial insectivores have the added advantage that they can visually select good looking habits and feed opportunistically en route, but Nightjars can only do this when active during the hours of darkness. The results of this study showed, unsurprisingly, that Nightjars rapidly cross barriers and inhospitable habitats, including Mediterranean Sea, Sahara Desert and equatorial forests. Either side of these barriers, Nightjars generally slowed their migration and spent more time in mixed habits, where they could then more intensively search out locations providing foraging hotspots. In both spring and autumn, around nine separate stops were made en route, each ranging between one and 27 days in duration. This study demonstrates how Nightjars optimise their migratory flights and search for prime stopover sites by selecting areas with very diverse habitat composition, which by their nature support prey hotspots. The birds can then home in upon these with limited effort. It is still not known how Nightjars assess the habitat, but it is likely that they can visually assess the structure in the limited nighttime light, or during better illuminated twilight periods.

18.10.23

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Combining remote sensing and tracking data to quantify species’ cumulative exposure to anthropogenic change

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Published: 2023

Many long-distance migratory bird species are experiencing severe population declines. These declines are being caused by human-driven changes, such as habitat loss and climate change, but the relative severity of these varies in space and time. Understanding this variation is key to understanding where species might be most exposed to population-limiting effects. This study used 10 years’ worth of satellite data from birds tagged as part of the BTO Cuckoo Tracking Project alongside data on human impacts on the environment (including the location of infrastructure, habitat change and climate change) collected via remote sensing to address these information gaps.

09.10.23

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