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Breeding performance
  1. Clutch size
  2. Brood size
  3. Egg-stage nest failure rate
  4. Chick-stage nest failure rate

1. Table of significant trends in Clutch size measured between 1967-2017


Species Period
(yrs)
Mean
annual
sample
Trend Predicted
in first year
Predicted
in last year
Change Comment
Great Tit 50 449 Linear decline 8.34 eggs 7.13 eggs -1.21 eggs  
Blue Tit 50 638 Linear decline 9.47 eggs 8.62 eggs -0.85 eggs  
Magpie 50 40 Linear decline 5.64 eggs 4.96 eggs -0.68 eggs  
Long-tailed Tit 50 47 Curvilinear 7.79 eggs 7.18 eggs -0.61 eggs  
Peregrine 50 20 Curvilinear 3.91 eggs 3.32 eggs -0.59 eggs Small sample
Grey Heron 50 14 Linear decline 4.01 eggs 3.42 eggs -0.59 eggs Small sample
Buzzard 50 37 Curvilinear 2.05 eggs 1.64 eggs -0.41 eggs  
Great Crested Grebe 50 15 Linear decline 3.52 eggs 3.14 eggs -0.38 eggs Small sample
Meadow Pipit 50 42 Curvilinear 4.27 eggs 3.99 eggs -0.28 eggs  
Hen Harrier 50 11 Curvilinear 5.57 eggs 5.32 eggs -0.25 eggs Small sample
Wood Warbler 50 22 Linear decline 5.85 eggs 5.6 eggs -0.25 eggs Small sample
Woodpigeon 50 100 Curvilinear 1.95 eggs 1.71 eggs -0.24 eggs  
Pied Wagtail 50 67 Linear decline 5.1 eggs 4.88 eggs -0.22 eggs  
Ring Ouzel 50 11 Linear decline 4.05 eggs 3.88 eggs -0.17 eggs Small sample
Greenfinch 50 82 Linear decline 4.75 eggs 4.59 eggs -0.16 eggs  
Linnet 50 128 Linear decline 4.74 eggs 4.6 eggs -0.14 eggs  
Reed Bunting 50 44 Linear decline 4.5 eggs 4.36 eggs -0.14 eggs  
Wren 50 101 Curvilinear 5.55 eggs 5.42 eggs -0.13 eggs  
Chaffinch 50 97 Linear decline 4.29 eggs 4.16 eggs -0.13 eggs  
Common Sandpiper 50 12 Curvilinear 3.99 eggs 3.9 eggs -0.09 eggs Small sample
Nightjar 50 21 Linear decline 1.97 eggs 1.88 eggs -0.09 eggs Small sample
Collared Dove 50 43 Linear decline 1.96 eggs 1.87 eggs -0.09 eggs  
Moorhen 50 111 Curvilinear 6.58 eggs 6.5 eggs -0.08 eggs  
Blackcap 50 46 Curvilinear 4.52 eggs 4.44 eggs -0.08 eggs  
Grey Wagtail 50 40 Curvilinear 4.79 eggs 4.76 eggs -0.03 eggs  
Oystercatcher 50 158 Curvilinear 2.76 eggs 2.81 eggs 0.05 eggs  
Stock Dove 50 138 Curvilinear 2.08 eggs 2.14 eggs 0.06 eggs  
Lapwing 50 188 Curvilinear 3.66 eggs 3.74 eggs 0.08 eggs  
Stonechat 50 41 Curvilinear 4.96 eggs 5.06 eggs 0.1 eggs  
Dunnock 50 116 Curvilinear 3.87 eggs 4.02 eggs 0.15 eggs  
Skylark 50 34 Curvilinear 3.32 eggs 3.54 eggs 0.22 eggs  
Redstart 50 57 Curvilinear 5.92 eggs 6.21 eggs 0.29 eggs  
Little Owl 50 26 Linear increase 3.35 eggs 3.72 eggs 0.37 eggs Small sample
Tree Sparrow 50 397 Curvilinear 4.77 eggs 5.17 eggs 0.4 eggs  
Starling 50 76 Linear increase 4.47 eggs 4.93 eggs 0.46 eggs  

2. Table of significant trends in Brood size measured between 1967-2017


Species Period
(yrs)
Mean
annual
sample
Trend Predicted
in first year
Predicted
in last year
Change Comment
Great Tit 50 963 Linear decline 7.5 chicks 6.02 chicks -1.48 chicks  
Long-tailed Tit 50 39 Linear decline 6.58 chicks 5.52 chicks -1.06 chicks  
Sand Martin 50 102 Curvilinear 4.61 chicks 3.57 chicks -1.04 chicks  
Blue Tit 50 1208 Curvilinear 7.56 chicks 7.02 chicks -0.54 chicks  
Carrion Crow 50 78 Curvilinear 2.93 chicks 2.4 chicks -0.53 chicks Includes Hooded Crow
Grey Heron 50 88 Linear decline 2.86 chicks 2.36 chicks -0.5 chicks  
Chiffchaff 50 51 Linear decline 5.07 chicks 4.7 chicks -0.37 chicks  
Wood Warbler 50 41 Linear decline 5.57 chicks 5.24 chicks -0.33 chicks  
Greenfinch 50 101 Linear decline 4.09 chicks 3.76 chicks -0.33 chicks  
Magpie 50 77 Curvilinear 3.39 chicks 3.07 chicks -0.32 chicks  
House Sparrow 50 171 Linear decline 3.48 chicks 3.16 chicks -0.32 chicks  
Rook 50 72 Curvilinear 2.2 chicks 1.94 chicks -0.26 chicks  
Meadow Pipit 50 88 Curvilinear 3.93 chicks 3.69 chicks -0.24 chicks  
Hobby 50 30 Curvilinear 2.34 chicks 2.12 chicks -0.22 chicks  
Great Crested Grebe 50 14 Curvilinear 2.25 chicks 2.05 chicks -0.2 chicks Small sample
Ring Ouzel 50 23 Linear decline 3.76 chicks 3.56 chicks -0.2 chicks Small sample
Raven 50 75 Curvilinear 3.27 chicks 3.11 chicks -0.16 chicks  
Pied Wagtail 50 137 Linear decline 4.49 chicks 4.34 chicks -0.15 chicks  
Reed Bunting 50 62 Curvilinear 4.02 chicks 3.89 chicks -0.13 chicks  
Woodpigeon 50 141 Curvilinear 1.8 chicks 1.74 chicks -0.06 chicks  
Linnet 50 147 Curvilinear 4.1 chicks 4.06 chicks -0.04 chicks  
Yellowhammer 50 64 Curvilinear 2.97 chicks 2.95 chicks -0.02 chicks  
Buzzard 50 118 Curvilinear 1.85 chicks 1.84 chicks -0.01 chicks  
Dunnock 50 129 Curvilinear 3.41 chicks 3.42 chicks 0.01 chicks  
Stonechat 50 83 Curvilinear 4.62 chicks 4.63 chicks 0.01 chicks  
Collared Dove 50 73 Curvilinear 1.74 chicks 1.77 chicks 0.03 chicks  
Tree Pipit 50 31 Curvilinear 4.26 chicks 4.32 chicks 0.06 chicks  
Mute Swan 50 69 Curvilinear 4.45 chicks 4.53 chicks 0.08 chicks  
Spotted Flycatcher 50 125 Linear increase 3.69 chicks 3.79 chicks 0.1 chicks  
Grey Wagtail 50 83 Curvilinear 4.06 chicks 4.17 chicks 0.11 chicks  
Sparrowhawk 50 65 Curvilinear 3.15 chicks 3.29 chicks 0.14 chicks  
Skylark 50 64 Curvilinear 3.1 chicks 3.28 chicks 0.18 chicks  
Peregrine 50 61 Linear increase 2.39 chicks 2.58 chicks 0.19 chicks  
Corn Bunting 50 14 Curvilinear 3.3 chicks 3.49 chicks 0.19 chicks Small sample
Willow Warbler 50 150 Linear increase 5.14 chicks 5.37 chicks 0.23 chicks  
Dipper 50 166 Curvilinear 3.42 chicks 3.7 chicks 0.28 chicks  
Tree Sparrow 50 515 Curvilinear 3.81 chicks 4.12 chicks 0.31 chicks  
Merlin 50 60 Curvilinear 3.34 chicks 3.66 chicks 0.32 chicks  
Little Owl 50 55 Linear increase 2.51 chicks 2.9 chicks 0.39 chicks  
Redstart 50 100 Curvilinear 5.13 chicks 5.57 chicks 0.44 chicks  
Starling 50 238 Linear increase 3.23 chicks 3.75 chicks 0.52 chicks  
Jay 50 11 Linear increase 3.39 chicks 4 chicks 0.61 chicks Small sample
Moorhen 50 105 Curvilinear 2.53 chicks 3.14 chicks 0.61 chicks  
Wren 50 132 Curvilinear 3.59 chicks 4.33 chicks 0.74 chicks  
Nuthatch 50 90 Linear increase 4.93 chicks 5.84 chicks 0.91 chicks  

3. Table of significant trends in Daily failure rate (eggs) measured between 1967-2017


Species Period
(yrs)
Mean
annual
sample
Trend Predicted
in first year
Predicted
in last year
Change Comment
Magpie 50 46 Curvilinear 0.0317 nests/day 0.0039 nests/day -0.0278 nests/day  
Redshank 50 29 Linear decline 0.0398 nests/day 0.0124 nests/day -0.0274 nests/day Small sample
Long-tailed Tit 50 65 Curvilinear 0.0387 nests/day 0.0119 nests/day -0.0268 nests/day  
Dipper 50 126 Curvilinear 0.0322 nests/day 0.006 nests/day -0.0262 nests/day  
Woodlark 50 26 Curvilinear 0.0526 nests/day 0.0299 nests/day -0.0227 nests/day Small sample
Yellowhammer 50 61 Curvilinear 0.0502 nests/day 0.028 nests/day -0.0222 nests/day  
Snipe 50 13 Linear decline 0.0323 nests/day 0.0117 nests/day -0.0206 nests/day Small sample
Carrion Crow 50 46 Curvilinear 0.021 nests/day 0.0053 nests/day -0.0157 nests/day Includes Hooded Crow
Woodpigeon 50 113 Curvilinear 0.046 nests/day 0.0306 nests/day -0.0154 nests/day  
Stock Dove 50 129 Curvilinear 0.0193 nests/day 0.0068 nests/day -0.0125 nests/day  
Pied Wagtail 50 90 Linear decline 0.0175 nests/day 0.0068 nests/day -0.0107 nests/day  
Robin 50 234 Curvilinear 0.0248 nests/day 0.0144 nests/day -0.0104 nests/day  
Tawny Owl 50 68 Curvilinear 0.0116 nests/day 0.0021 nests/day -0.0095 nests/day Nocturnal species
Starling 50 123 Linear decline 0.0113 nests/day 0.0021 nests/day -0.0092 nests/day  
Great Crested Grebe 50 23 Curvilinear 0.0295 nests/day 0.0208 nests/day -0.0087 nests/day Small sample
Wood Warbler 50 27 Curvilinear 0.0242 nests/day 0.016 nests/day -0.0082 nests/day Small sample
Sand Martin 50 83 Curvilinear 0.0153 nests/day 0.0073 nests/day -0.008 nests/day  
Buzzard 50 30 Linear decline 0.0083 nests/day 0.0004 nests/day -0.0079 nests/day  
Barn Owl 50 37 Linear decline 0.0079 nests/day 0.0004 nests/day -0.0075 nests/day  
House Sparrow 50 127 Linear decline 0.0109 nests/day 0.0035 nests/day -0.0074 nests/day  
Grey Wagtail 50 60 Linear decline 0.017 nests/day 0.0098 nests/day -0.0072 nests/day  
Nuthatch 50 68 Linear decline 0.0089 nests/day 0.0019 nests/day -0.007 nests/day  
Redstart 50 86 Curvilinear 0.0149 nests/day 0.0081 nests/day -0.0068 nests/day  
Kestrel 50 44 Curvilinear 0.0078 nests/day 0.0011 nests/day -0.0067 nests/day  
Marsh Tit 50 22 Linear decline 0.0075 nests/day 0.0009 nests/day -0.0066 nests/day Small sample
Wren 50 145 Linear decline 0.0182 nests/day 0.0121 nests/day -0.0061 nests/day  
Jackdaw 50 80 Curvilinear 0.0089 nests/day 0.0032 nests/day -0.0057 nests/day  
Merlin 50 23 Linear decline 0.0071 nests/day 0.0015 nests/day -0.0056 nests/day Small sample
Tree Sparrow 50 516 Linear decline 0.0085 nests/day 0.003 nests/day -0.0055 nests/day  
Tree Pipit 50 16 Curvilinear 0.0444 nests/day 0.0393 nests/day -0.0051 nests/day Small sample
Peregrine 50 27 Linear decline 0.0072 nests/day 0.0025 nests/day -0.0047 nests/day Small sample
Sparrowhawk 50 29 Linear decline 0.0042 nests/day 0.0007 nests/day -0.0035 nests/day Small sample
Curlew 50 21 Curvilinear 0.0271 nests/day 0.0239 nests/day -0.0032 nests/day Small sample
Pied Flycatcher 50 514 Curvilinear 0.006 nests/day 0.003 nests/day -0.003 nests/day  
Great Tit 50 873 Linear decline 0.005 nests/day 0.0023 nests/day -0.0027 nests/day  
Raven 50 23 Curvilinear 0.0029 nests/day 0.0002 nests/day -0.0027 nests/day Small sample
Coal Tit 50 57 Linear decline 0.0043 nests/day 0.0017 nests/day -0.0026 nests/day  
Treecreeper 50 22 Curvilinear 0.0237 nests/day 0.0214 nests/day -0.0023 nests/day Small sample
Spotted Flycatcher 50 111 Curvilinear 0.0178 nests/day 0.0157 nests/day -0.0021 nests/day  
Blackcap 50 58 Curvilinear 0.0229 nests/day 0.0211 nests/day -0.0018 nests/day  
Greenfinch 50 113 Curvilinear 0.0271 nests/day 0.0254 nests/day -0.0017 nests/day  
Blue Tit 50 1137 Curvilinear 0.0039 nests/day 0.0023 nests/day -0.0016 nests/day  
Collared Dove 50 61 Curvilinear 0.0302 nests/day 0.03 nests/day -0.0002 nests/day  
Chiffchaff 50 57 Curvilinear 0.0216 nests/day 0.0219 nests/day 0.0003 nests/day  
Grey Heron 50 16 Curvilinear 0.0001 nests/day 0.0004 nests/day 0.0003 nests/day Small sample
Dunnock 50 163 Curvilinear 0.0257 nests/day 0.0272 nests/day 0.0015 nests/day  
Little Grebe 50 14 Curvilinear 0.0354 nests/day 0.0399 nests/day 0.0045 nests/day Small sample
Reed Warbler 50 225 Curvilinear 0.0195 nests/day 0.024 nests/day 0.0045 nests/day  
Stonechat 50 47 Linear increase 0.0055 nests/day 0.0109 nests/day 0.0054 nests/day  
Sedge Warbler 50 39 Curvilinear 0.0152 nests/day 0.0206 nests/day 0.0054 nests/day  
Linnet 50 177 Linear increase 0.0182 nests/day 0.0244 nests/day 0.0062 nests/day  
Goldfinch 50 41 Linear increase 0.0191 nests/day 0.029 nests/day 0.0099 nests/day  
Willow Warbler 50 69 Linear increase 0.0091 nests/day 0.0195 nests/day 0.0104 nests/day  
Garden Warbler 50 24 Curvilinear 0.0175 nests/day 0.0283 nests/day 0.0108 nests/day Small sample
Meadow Pipit 50 53 Curvilinear 0.0224 nests/day 0.0333 nests/day 0.0109 nests/day  
Lapwing 50 207 Curvilinear 0.0156 nests/day 0.0269 nests/day 0.0113 nests/day  
Nightjar 50 26 Curvilinear 0.0082 nests/day 0.0207 nests/day 0.0125 nests/day Small sample
Chaffinch 50 184 Curvilinear 0.0293 nests/day 0.0438 nests/day 0.0145 nests/day  
Moorhen 50 138 Linear increase 0.0104 nests/day 0.0252 nests/day 0.0148 nests/day  
Ringed Plover 50 127 Curvilinear 0.0252 nests/day 0.041 nests/day 0.0158 nests/day  
Skylark 50 42 Curvilinear 0.0374 nests/day 0.0534 nests/day 0.016 nests/day  
Blackbird 50 350 Curvilinear 0.0248 nests/day 0.0413 nests/day 0.0165 nests/day  
Oystercatcher 50 174 Curvilinear 0.0101 nests/day 0.0281 nests/day 0.018 nests/day  
Reed Bunting 50 52 Linear increase 0.0072 nests/day 0.0307 nests/day 0.0235 nests/day  
Whinchat 50 20 Linear increase 0.0064 nests/day 0.0305 nests/day 0.0241 nests/day Small sample

4. Table of significant trends in Daily failure rate (chicks) measured between 1967-2017


Species Period
(yrs)
Mean
annual
sample
Trend Predicted
in first year
Predicted
in last year
Change Comment
Sand Martin 50 109 Curvilinear 0.0282 nests/day 0.0013 nests/day -0.0269 nests/day  
Skylark 50 52 Linear decline 0.0483 nests/day 0.0287 nests/day -0.0196 nests/day  
Magpie 50 45 Curvilinear 0.023 nests/day 0.0043 nests/day -0.0187 nests/day  
Reed Warbler 50 174 Curvilinear 0.0243 nests/day 0.0122 nests/day -0.0121 nests/day  
Grey Wagtail 50 59 Linear decline 0.0194 nests/day 0.0088 nests/day -0.0106 nests/day  
Jackdaw 50 71 Curvilinear 0.0141 nests/day 0.0038 nests/day -0.0103 nests/day  
Blackbird 50 282 Curvilinear 0.0317 nests/day 0.0222 nests/day -0.0095 nests/day  
Tree Sparrow 50 361 Curvilinear 0.0157 nests/day 0.0064 nests/day -0.0093 nests/day  
Merlin 50 30 Linear decline 0.0105 nests/day 0.0015 nests/day -0.009 nests/day  
Redstart 50 62 Curvilinear 0.0146 nests/day 0.0061 nests/day -0.0085 nests/day  
House Sparrow 50 127 Curvilinear 0.0155 nests/day 0.0079 nests/day -0.0076 nests/day  
Carrion Crow 50 40 Linear decline 0.0067 nests/day 0.0012 nests/day -0.0055 nests/day Includes Hooded Crow
Meadow Pipit 50 76 Curvilinear 0.0353 nests/day 0.0316 nests/day -0.0037 nests/day  
Starling 50 137 Curvilinear 0.0068 nests/day 0.0036 nests/day -0.0032 nests/day  
Collared Dove 50 55 Curvilinear 0.0219 nests/day 0.0187 nests/day -0.0032 nests/day  
Stock Dove 50 83 Linear decline 0.0105 nests/day 0.0074 nests/day -0.0031 nests/day  
Barn Owl 50 184 Curvilinear 0.0032 nests/day 0.0003 nests/day -0.0029 nests/day  
Tawny Owl 50 108 Curvilinear 0.0034 nests/day 0.0006 nests/day -0.0028 nests/day Nocturnal species
Nuthatch 50 75 Linear decline 0.0043 nests/day 0.002 nests/day -0.0023 nests/day  
Corn Bunting 50 14 Curvilinear 0.0496 nests/day 0.0491 nests/day -0.0005 nests/day Small sample
Great Tit 50 595 Curvilinear 0.0059 nests/day 0.0062 nests/day 0.0003 nests/day  
Spotted Flycatcher 50 101 Curvilinear 0.0088 nests/day 0.0103 nests/day 0.0015 nests/day  
Stonechat 50 78 Curvilinear 0.0164 nests/day 0.0181 nests/day 0.0017 nests/day  
Woodpigeon 50 91 Curvilinear 0.0211 nests/day 0.0229 nests/day 0.0018 nests/day  
Swallow 50 570 Linear increase 0.0029 nests/day 0.0048 nests/day 0.0019 nests/day  
Whinchat 50 33 Curvilinear 0.0241 nests/day 0.0263 nests/day 0.0022 nests/day  
Moorhen 50 51 Linear increase 0.0003 nests/day 0.0029 nests/day 0.0026 nests/day  
Pied Flycatcher 50 433 Linear increase 0.0037 nests/day 0.0071 nests/day 0.0034 nests/day  
Wren 50 99 Linear increase 0.0073 nests/day 0.0111 nests/day 0.0038 nests/day  
Nightjar 50 24 Curvilinear 0.0018 nests/day 0.0079 nests/day 0.0061 nests/day Small sample
Linnet 50 127 Linear increase 0.0159 nests/day 0.0221 nests/day 0.0062 nests/day  
Reed Bunting 50 52 Curvilinear 0.0272 nests/day 0.036 nests/day 0.0088 nests/day  
Long-tailed Tit 50 44 Linear increase 0.0079 nests/day 0.0207 nests/day 0.0128 nests/day  
Garden Warbler 50 21 Linear increase 0.012 nests/day 0.0252 nests/day 0.0132 nests/day Small sample
Wood Warbler 50 34 Curvilinear 0.0227 nests/day 0.0472 nests/day 0.0245 nests/day  

 

This report should be cited as: Woodward, I.D., Massimino, D., Hammond, M.J., Harris, S.J., Leech, D.I., Noble, D.G., Walker, R.H., Barimore, C., Dadam, D., Eglington, S.M., Marchant, J.H., Sullivan, M.J.P., Baillie, S.R. & Robinson, R.A. (2019) BirdTrends 2019: trends in numbers, breeding success and survival for UK breeding birds. BTO Research Report 722. BTO, Thetford. www.bto.org/birdtrends