Austin, G.E. & Rehfisch, M.M. 2006. S08-5 A methodology for predicting the impact of sea level rise on shorebirds (Charadrii) in estuaries. Acta Zool. Sin . 52 (Suppl.): 169-172.

Abstract

Mean sea level has been rising around Britain and the North Sea region over the past century and is predicted to rise more over the next century as a result of global climate change. Britain is internationally important for the large numbers of shorebirds (Charadriiformes) that winter on its estuaries, a habitat that will be directly affected by rising sea levels. The BTO has developed models for estimating estuarine shorebird densities from measurements of estuarine geomorphology predisposed to predict how sea level rise may affect shorebirds. A methodology integrating these models with digital elevation models, coastline management plans and predictions of sea level rise was explored using two case study estuaries. The studies suggest that the densities of shorebird species favoring muddy sediments will decrease as sediments become increasingly sandy under management scenarios that allow land behind existing sea defenses to be reclaimed by the sea. However, where changes in estuary shape become great enough to bring about this shift, the associated increase in area more than compensates for the assumed degradation of habitat and such that numbers of shorebirds may be accommodated overall.

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