Besbeas, P., Freeman, S.N., and Morgan, B.J.T. 2005. The potential of integrated population modelling. Aust .N.Z .J. Stat. 47: 35-48

Summary

Recent work has shown how the Kalman filter can be used to provide a simple framework for the integrated analysis of wild animal census and mark-recapture-recovery data. The approach has been applied to data on a range of bird species, on Soay sheep and on grey seals. This paper reviews the basic ideas, and then indicates the potential of the method through a series of new applications to data on the northern lapwing, a species of conservation interest that has been in decline in Britain for the past 20 years. The paper analyses a national index, as well as data from individual sites; it looks for a change-point in productivity, corresponding to the start of the decline in numbers, considers how to select appropriate covariates, and compares productivity between different habitats. The new procedures can be applied singly or in combination.

Key words : census data, Common Birds Census, habitat differences, Kalman filter, lapwings, Leslie matrix models, maximum likelihood, multivariate normal approximation, productivity, ring-recovery data, state-space models, Vanellus vanellus , variable selection.