Abstract from BTO Research Report No 354:

Stilman, R.A., Clark, N.A., Atkinson, P.W., West, A.D., McGrorty, S. Le V dit Durell, S.E.A. & Yates, M.G. (2004)

Assessing the impacts of shell-fishing & mussel farming on Oystercatcher populations in the Wash, England. Phase 1: Identification of modle parameters to be refined.
ISBN: 1-904870-38-4

Executive summary

Chapter 1. Overview

Behaviour-based models predict the responses of animal population to environmental change from the combined behavioural responses of the individual animals within these populations. These models predict how individual animals will alter their behaviour in order to respond to environmental change. Their central assumption is that, no matter how much the environment changes, each individual will behave in a manner that maximises its own fitness. Because of this, model animals are expected to respond to environmental change in the same way as real animals. By following the behaviour and ultimate fate of each individual, a behaviour-based model is able to predict the population consequences of the optimal decisions of individuals. These models should therefore provide a reliable means of predicting how animal populations will be influenced by environmental change. Sutherland & Norris (2002) give an overview of behaviour-based models and their application to conservation problems.

The Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) has applied behaviour-based models to a range of environmental problems affecting coastal birds (e.g. West et al. 2002, 2003; Stillman et al. 2003). The purpose of this report is to describe how a behaviour-based model could be developed to predict the effect of shellfish abundance and distribution, and shellfishery management on the survival rates of oystercatchers overwintering on the Wash. The report describes an existing model based on provisional data (Stillman et al. 2003), and the data that are required to increase the accuracy of the models predictions.

The report is divided into the following sections.

(i) A general description of the CEH behaviour-based model, to explain how the model functions, what it is able to predict and how it can be used to assess the effects of environmental change.

(ii) A summary of the results of the existing model.

(iii) A summary of the new data required to improve the accuracy of the model’s predictions.

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