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The Effect of Climate Change on Birds
by David Leech |
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3. The value and use of long-term
data sets |
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| A variety of programmes implemented by the BTO, including
the Common Birds Census (CBC),
the National Ringing Scheme
and the Nest Record Scheme,
are responsible for monitoring population sizes and distribution,
survival rates and the timing and success of breeding events respectively
at a national scale. |
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| Collection of long-term data sets such as these has enabled
the identification of trends in abundance, species ranges and phenology
of a wide range of bird species. Once identified, these trends can
then be related to observed fluctuations in the global climate over
the same time period. Such relationships are essentially correlational
and therefore do not necessarily imply causation. However, the careful
consideration and elimination of alternative hypotheses can help strengthen
conclusions based on correlational studies. In addition, the influence
of climatic variables on demography may be investigated in combination
with other potentially influential factors - this is particularly
important when studying population distributions, as broad geographical
and habitat features may also be important. |
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| In addition, long-term ornithological datasets not only
allow the investigation of whether, and in what way, past climatic
changes have affected bird populations, but also allow relationships
between species ecology and climatic changes to be investigated. Knowledge
of such relationships is vital if the effects of future variation
in the global climate on avian populations are to be predicted. The
continued monitoring of populations is extremely important if the
accuracy of these predictions is to be assessed and if models are
to be refined as new information on the nature of climatic changes
is gathered. |
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Lack of synchrony between chick production and food availability
may influence breeding success. Freeman et al. (in prep)
observed that brood productivity of 14 of the 26 species they studied
decreased as temperatures during the post-laying period increased,
possibly due to the increased potential for asynchrony between offspring
demand and prey availability as temperatures rise. |
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© British Trust for Ornithology
BTO, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU
Tel: +44 (0)1842 750050 Fax: +44 (0)1842 750030 Email: info@bto.org
Registered Charity Number 216652. This page last updated:
31 October, 2007
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