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BTO Blueline
KESTREL
Falco tinnunculus
 Kestrel © Tommy Holden
 

• Population
  changes

• Productivity
  trends

• Additional
  information
Conservation listings
Europe: SPEC category 3, declining
UK: amber (25–50% population decline)
Long-term trend
England: moderate decline (since mid 1970s)
UK population size
36,800 pairs in 2000 (1988–91 Atlas estimate updated using CBC/BBS trend: BiE04, APEP06)
Status summary
Kestrels had recovered from the lethal and sublethal effects of organochlorine pesticides by the mid 1970s, the recovery probably driven by improving nesting success, but subsequently entered a decline which has been linked to the effects of agricultural intensification on farmland habitats and their populations of small mammals (Gibbons et al. 1993). BBS data reveal limited recovery of the population over the last five years. The failure rate at the egg stage (c.28 days from laying the first egg) has declined substantially since the 1970s; brood sizes increased up to 1990, but a subsequent decline has resulted in the addition of Kestrel to the NRS Concern List (Leech et al. 2006b).
 

Population changes
CBC/BBS England graph
 
Table of population changes for Kestrel

Source Period
(yrs)		 Years Plots
(n)		 Change
(%)		 Lower
limit		 Upper
limit		 Alert Comment
CBC/BBS England 38 1967-2005 202 10 -23 53    
  25 1980-2005 268 -21 -39 -2    
  10 1995-2005 521 4 -2 13    
  5 2000-2005 528 11 4 20    
BBS UK 10 1995-2005 562 -9 -17 -1    
  5 2000-2005 599 8 0 16    
BBS England 10 1995-2005 484 3 -5 11    
  5 2000-2005 518 12 5 19    
BBS Scotland 10 1995-2005 42 -36 -50 -13 >25  
  5 2000-2005 41 -8 -29 21    

BBS acknowledgement
 
BBS UK graph
BBS England graph
BBS Scotland graph
 

Productivity trends
Table of productivity changes for Kestrel

Variable Period
(yrs)		 Years Mean
annual
sample		 Trend Modelled
in first year		 Modelled
in 2005		 Change Comment
Clutch size 37 1968-2005 53 None        
Brood size 37 1968-2005 116 Curvilinear 3.76 chicks 3.93 chicks 4.6%  
Daily failure rate (eggs) 37 1968-2005 40 Linear decline 0.56% nests/day 0.09% nests/day -83.9%  
Daily failure rate (chicks) 37 1968-2005 63 None        
Laying date 37 1968-2005 21 Linear decline May 4 Apr 28 -6 days Small sample

 
Clutch size graph
Brood size graph
Egg nest failure graph
Chick nest failure graph
Laying date graph

 

 

Insufficient data on CES
available for this species
 

Additional information
BTO blue divider
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This report should be cited as:
Baillie, S.R., Marchant, J.H., Crick, H.Q.P., Noble, D.G., Balmer, D.E., Barimore, C., Coombes, R.H.,
Downie, I.S., Freeman, S.N., Joys, A.C., Leech, D.I., Raven, M.J., Robinson, R.A. & Thewlis, R.M. (2007)
Breeding Birds in the Wider Countryside: their conservation status 2007.
BTO Research Report No. 487. BTO, Thetford. (http://www.bto.org/birdtrends)

Pages maintained by Susan Waghorn and Iain Downie: Last updated 3 January, 2008