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2.2
Common Birds Census
The Common Birds
Census (CBC), which began in 1962, was the first of the BTO's monitoring
schemes for widespread breeding birds, but has now been superseded
for this purpose by BBS. The 2000 field season
was the CBC's last year of full operation. CBC results have been
hugely influential in determining conservation priorities in the
UK countryside. The store of detailed maps of almost a million birds'
territories, collected through the CBC and maintained by BTO since
the early 1960s, is a mine of information of unique value for investigating
the relationships between breeding birds and their environment,
over wide temporal and spatial scales. For many species, CBC and
BBS trends can be linked to form joint CBC/BBS trends that provide
ongoing monitoring, continuous since the 1960s.
The weaknesses
of the CBC as a monitor of UK bird populations were largely related
to the time-consuming nature of both fieldwork and analysis. This
inevitably limited the number of volunteers able to participate
in the scheme, with the result that areas with few birdwatchers
were under-represented. Constrained by the relatively small sample
size, CBC concentrated on farmland and woodland habitats. Bird population
trends in built-up areas and the uplands were therefore poorly represented.
Moreover, as the plots were chosen by the observers, some may not
have been representative of the surrounding countryside and there
may be some bias towards bird-rich habitats. It is for these reasons
that the BBS was introduced in 1994. Both surveys were run in parallel
for seven years to allow calibration between the schemes (Freeman
et al. 2003: BTO Research Report 303; Section
2.3 of this report).
CBC, 1962-2000
The results from the Common Birds Census (CBC) provided reliable
population trends for more than 60 of the commoner UK breeding species.
The CBC was
instigated to provide sound information on farmland bird populations
in the face of rapid changes in agricultural practice. Fieldwork
was carried out by a team of 250-300 dedicated volunteers. The same
observers surveyed the same plots using the same methods year after
year. On average, plots were censused for around seven consecutive
years but a few observers surveyed the same sites for more than
30 years. Although the original emphasis was on farmland plots,
woodland plots were added by 1964. Farmland plots averaged around
70 hectares in extent. Woodland plots were generally smaller, averaging
just over 20 hectares. A small number of plots of other habitats,
including heathlands and small wetlands, were also surveyed annually,
especially before 1985.
A territory-mapping
approach was used to estimate the number and positions of territories
of each species present on each survey plot during the breeding
season. Volunteers visited their survey plots typically eight to
ten times between late March and early July and all contacts with
birds, either by sight or sound, were plotted on 1:2500 maps. Codes
were used to note each bird's species, with sex and age where possible,
and also to record activity such as song or nest-building. The registrations
were then transferred to species maps and returned to BTO headquarters
for analysis. Observers also provided maps and other details of
the habitat on their plots. This makes it possible to match the
distribution of bird territories with habitat features, providing
the potential for detailed studies of bird-habitat relationships.
The pattern
of registrations on the species maps reveals the numbers of territories
for each species. All assessments of territory number were made
by trained BTO staff, applying rigorous guidelines, to ensure consistency
between estimates across sites and years.
In 1990, the
results from the Common Birds Census were brought together in the
book Population Trends in British Breeding Birds (Marchant
et al. 1990). This landmark publication discussed
long-term population trends for the years 1962 to 1988 for 164 species,
with CBC or WBS population graphs for around two-thirds of these.
Validation
studies
The CBC was the first national breeding bird monitoring scheme of
its kind anywhere in the world and its value has been widely recognised
internationally. The territory-mapping method adopted by the CBC
is acknowledged as the most efficient way of estimating breeding
bird numbers in small areas. Snow
(1965) compared CBC mapping and intensive nest-finding,
and concluded that mapping censuses are good indicators of breeding
population size for 70% of species. Experiments to test differences
between observers' abilities to detect birds found that, although
there was considerable variation between individual abilities, the
observers were consistent from year to year (O'Connor
& Marchant 1981). As the CBC relies on data from plots covered
by the same observer in consecutive years, this source of bias has
no implications for the CBC's ability to identify population trends.
It has also been confirmed that the sample of plots from which CBC
results are drawn has not changed in composition or character over
the years (Marchant et
al. 1990) and that the results of territory analysis
are not affected by changes in analysts, once trained (O'Connor
& Marchant 1981). Fuller
et al. (1985) found that farmland CBC plots were
representative of ITE lowland land-classes throughout England (excluding
the extreme north and southwest), and closely reflected the agricultural
statistics for southern and eastern Britain.
Data analysis
Population changes are modelled using a generalised additive model
(GAM), a type of log-linear regression model that incorporates a
smoothing function (Fewster
et al. 2000). This replaces the Mountford model that
employed a 6-year moving window (Mountford
1982, 1985;
Peach & Baillie 1994)
and was used to produce annual population indices until 1999, but
the principles are similar. These models are also very similar to
log-linear poisson regression as implemented by program TRIM (Pannekoek
& van Strien 1996). Counts are modelled as the product of
site and year effects on the assumption that between-year changes
are homogeneous across plots. "Smoothing" is used to remove
short-term fluctuations (e.g. those caused by periods of severe
weather or measurement error) and thus reveal the underlying pattern
of population change. This is achieved by setting the degrees of
freedom to 0.3 times the number of years in the series. Confidence
limits on the indices are estimated by bootstrapping (a resampling
method; Manly 1991)
and thus do not make any assumptions about the underlying distribution
of counts.
Indices are
plotted as the blue line on the graphs, and provide a relative measure
of population size on an arithmetic scale relative to an arbitrary
value of 100 in 2002. If an index value increases from 100 to 200,
the population has doubled; if it declines from 100 to 50, it has
halved. The two green lines on the graphs, above and below the index
line, are the upper and lower 85% confidence limits. A narrow confidence
interval indicates that the index series is estimated precisely,
a wider interval indicates that it is less precise. The use of 85%
confidence limits allows relatively straightforward comparison of
points along the modelled line: non-overlap of the 85% confidence
limits is equivalent to a significant difference at approximately
the 5% level (Anganuzzi
1993).
Caveats are
provided to show where the data suffer from a "Small sample"
if the mean number of plots was less than 20. Data are regarded
as "Unrepresentative?" if the average abundance of a species
in 10-km squares containing CBC plots was less than that in other
10-km squares of the species' distribution in the UK (as measured
from 1988-91 Breeding Atlas data (Gibbons
et al. 1993)), or, where average abundances could
not be calculated, expert opinion judged that CBC data may not be
representative.
In practice
most CBC data included in this report have been combined with BBS
data to provide joint CBC/BBS trends, using the methods described
in the next section. These methods for producing joint trends represent
an extension of those described above.
Next
Page - 2.3 Joint CBC/BBS trends
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