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4.1 The alert system
     

This report uses a system of alerts agreed after a series of extensive discussions between the providers and users of population monitoring information in the UK.  The system provides alerts to population declines of 25-49% and of  >50% over short, medium and longer terms (5 years, 10 years and 25+ years respectively).  These help to highlight the scale and timing of declines as an aid to interpreting the trend graphs presented.   For example, a species that triggers an alert over 25 years but not over the past 10 or 5 years, declined at some point in the past, but has not yet recovered. A species that triggers alerts over 25, 10 and 5 years, however, is still undergoing a potentially serious population decline. For the former species, identification of actions that will aid population recovery is of greatest importance, whereas for the latter species it is urgent that means of halting declines are established before consideration is given to actions aimed at increasing the population size. Alerts triggered over the short term for individual species should be considered as early warnings, indicating that conservation issues may be developing for these species. However, it is possible that such declines may be due to chance fluctuations in abundance from which the population is able to recover without assistance. The rapid, short-term decline of a suite of similar species should be considered as a stronger indication that potential problems may be developing.

     
These alerts are therefore important for the conservation practitioners who need to prioritise the needs for conservation action, but we also hope that they will prove of more general use to other readers of the report. 
     
In this discussion:
     
1) We first describe the key alerts that are raised for population declines over the last 31 years on all CBC plots combined.  This is the longest time period covered by reliable monitoring data, given the need to allow populations to recover following the severe winter of 1962/63.
   
2) We aim to:
  a) highlight those species that are potentially new candidates for conservation listing due to rapid or moderate declines in their abundance, and
  b) to discuss those species that are candidates to change their conservation status.
   
3) We then discuss the other main alerts covered in the report:
  a) 31-year alerts raised from CBC farmland and woodland plots separately,
  b) WBS alerts over 24 years,
  c) CES alerts over 15 years, and
  d) BBS changes over 6 years.
     
4) Finally we discuss:
  a) rapidly increasing species,
  b) changes in breeding performance, and
  c) summarise the overall patterns found.
     




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This report should be cited as:
Baillie, S.R., Crick, H.Q.P., Balmer, D.E., Beaven, L.P., Downie, I.S., Freeman, S.N., Leech, D.I., Marchant, J.H.,
Noble, D.G., Raven, M.J., Simpkin, A.P., Thewlis, R.M. and Wernham, C.V.
(2002) Breeding Birds in the Wider
Countryside: their conservation status 2001. BTO Research Report No. 278. BTO, Thetford. (http://www.bto.org/birdtrends)

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